Diabetes costs likely to surge: Study

According to the projections made by the health experts, nearly 44 million people will have diabetes compared to 24 million in the present scenario.

Furthermore, the rising cases will add to the cost of treating the disease which will jump to $336 billion annually compared to $113 billion at present.

"We forecast that in the next 25 years, the population size of people with diabetes -- both diagnosed and undiagnosed -- will rise from approximately 24 million people to 44 million people by the year 2034," lead researcher Dr. Elbert Huang of the University of Chicago said.

"We anticipate that the cost of taking care of those people -- and these are direct medical costs -- will triple over the same period of time, going from $113 billion today to $336 billion (per year)," Huang added.

The projections are published in the journal Diabetes Care.

Forecasting model of diabetes population costs
To have an estimated idea of the rise in diabetes cases as well as spending, researchers developed a forecasting model of diabetes population costs.

The model follows the total number of people who could develop the disease over the next couple of years, together with the cost factor.

It also allows determining what proportion of different generations would be entering the diabetes population.

"That is important to account for because we know that age itself is a major predictor of diabetes, and we know that the baby boomer generation is entering an age where there's a high risk of developing diabetes," Huang said.

Factors like rates of obesity, diabetes prevention, and diabetes care remain constant in this model, the researchers said.

The study model used by the researchers reinforces the importance of public health efforts to prevent diabetes which could possibly contain the disease to a noteworthy extent.

Difficulty for Medicare
If the projections hold true, half of all the costs of care and treatment for diabetes is likely to rise by 2034 even in the Medicare population, warned the researchers.

The number of diabetic patients covered by Medicare is expected to jump to 14.6 million over the next 25 years from nearly 8 million at present.

Likewise, an upsurge is expected in the costs incurred on diabetes treatment spending, which is projected to rise to $171 billion from $14.6 million at present.

However, researchers claim, if a bigger decline is obesity is achieved with aggressive public efforts, the situation is likely to improve. This will only benefit the public at large as they would be able to drastically lower their diabetes risk.

The need of the hour is finding new ways to treat diabetes, keeping a watch on what we eat, and indulging in moderate exercise for at least 30 minutes, five times a week, health experts recommend.

Diabetes prevents people from breaking down sugar in their blood and can lead to complications including heart disease, kidney disease, vision loss and amputation of limbs. Regular check-ups and proper diet and exercise can help in preventing the risk, say experts.